Musing on Abortion Strategy

If you are a conservative of any stripe, we have a question for you: did you truly believe, as a practical matter, that the day would ever come that the Supreme Court would actually strike down Roe v. Wade?

Now, let's clarify this a bit: if you are a person of faith, you could plausibly say, "Yes, I have always truly believed that, in God's good time, He would end and punish the wicked sin of abortion one way or another."  That's not what we mean here, though - did you believe that, as a function of ordinary political processes, without the explicit visible intervention of either God or events outside our regular Constitutional order, that anti-abortion forces in the form of ordinary conservative voters and their generally-feckless Republican "leaders" would finally manage to compose a Supreme Court that would, in a legal way, overrule their previously decided "super-precedent"?

Of course, we do not know at this writing whether that will actually happen - there's never been a group so skilled at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory as Republicans and their much-abused stalwarts in the voting public.  It does look pretty likely though; for sure, the Left is acting as if the end of their world is nigh.

The trouble is, anyone who believes this is flat wrong.  As countless pedants have pointed out, revoking Roe v. Wade in no way makes abortion illegal, on its own; it simply removes it from the list of "rights" that state and local governments are allowed to infringe.

At last count, in the absence of Roe v. Wade roughly half the states will have abortion restrictions that previously weren't allowed; of those, the overwhelming majority will have restrictions no tighter than what prevails in Europe, that great shining star of left-liberal example.  Indeed, for the half-century of Roe v. Wade, abortion has been far more readily available in the US than in Europe:

In fact, fully 75% of all nations do not permit abortion after 12 weeks' gestation, except (in most instances) to save the life and to preserve the physical health of the mother.

So, if Roe v. Wade is ended - which remains to be seen - our situation will be as follows:

• Most of America will live under abortion laws more or less the same as Europe.
• Most of blue-state America will live under abortion laws far more liberal than those found in Europe, especially the larger states like California and New York, which are poised to not only legalize all-but-infanticide, but pay for it with tax dollars.
• Residents of those few states with restrictions more stringent than those of Europe will still have their full Constitutional right to cross a border into a neighboring blue state and do whatever is permitted there.

This isn't difficult Constitutional law - it's always been perfectly legal to go to Las Vegas to gamble, Reno to patronize a prostitute, or to participate in any number of other vices that are permitted in one jurisdiction but not in others.  That's how a republic is supposed to work.

As Justice Alito reportedly put it, "Roe was egregiously wrong from the start."  Many people also feel that gambling is wrong, or drinking alcohol, or whoremongering, or the use of various mind-altering substances.  American history clearly shows, though, that when we try to enforce a blanket moral code across the entire country, nothing good results.  America is just too diverse and large for "one size fits all" solutions to work no matter how hard progressives may try - and, yes, Prohibition was very much a political crusade of the Progressive Movement.

A House Ready to Fall?

What, then, of Abraham Lincoln's famous "House Divided" argument to the contrary?

I believe this government cannot endure, permanently half slave and half free.

He was right: for some decades as a nation, and several centuries as related colonies, the North and South had coexisted in an uneasy but evenly-balanced truce.  In 1857, though, the pro-slavery Supreme Court dominated by Southerners attempted to enforce the rules of slavery nationwide.  Today, the Dred Scott decision is held up as the ultimate of legalistic evil, which of course it was, but it's more than that: by attempting to force their slavery down the throats of the North, the Supreme Court made the Civil War inevitable.

It speaks to the restraint - or, possibly, the pusillanimity - of conservatives, that the Roe v. Wade decision didn't do the same.  The left has no such compunctions; before the ruling has even been issued, they're calling for a "summer of rage."  Considering that 2020's BLM "summer of love" burned down entire city blocks, we're not looking forward to what leftists do when they get really mad.

And remember: nothing will change anywhere they live!  Abortion will still be just as freely available in California, New York, Portland, Chicago, Boston - really, everywhere leftists hang out save Austin, Texas, and if they saw fit to burn that down, much of Texas wouldn't particularly mind.

If, as they say, the Left views murdering one's own unborn child as the highest sacrament, then they have a simple solution: establish a fund for bus tickets for residents of (say) Alabama who want to travel to St. Louis for an abortion.  Problem solved!

The trouble is that, as we all know, that's not good enough for them.  The Left is never content to be allowed to do whatever it is that they want to do.  Something in their dark souls demands that everyone else participate and honor their depravity.

It would appear that they no longer can; even with every trick at their disposal, the Democrats are unable to pass a bill forcing legalized abortion nationwide.  The natural response? Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) states that, after Republicans take control of Congress, a nationwide abortion ban is "possible".

Doing What's Right, What's Difficult, or What's Wise?

The temptation to shove the Left's half-century of murderous tyranny down their evil throats must be overwhelming.  The holy motivation to save the lives of innocent unborns, too, is monumental.  Before we exult in an unaccustomed victory and prepare to flex sheer political power, we need to soberly consider the cost - while remembering that the lives of people after they are born are just as sacred to Almighty God.

Abraham Lincoln, as much as anyone who ever lived, understood the price of slavery:

Yet, if God wills that it continue until all the wealth piled by the bondsman's two hundred and fifty years of unrequited toil shall be sunk, and until every drop of blood drawn with the lash shall be paid by another drawn with the sword, as was said three thousand years ago, so still it must be said "the judgments of the Lord are true and righteous altogether.

The Left has proven that it is willing and eager to resort to violence if it doesn't get its way - but, so far, this has been generally disorganized violence, unable to accomplish anything if met with even minimal opposition.

If Roe v. Wade is overruled, they will rage, they will rant, they will burn... their own cities.  How much do, or should, we care?  And how long will it last, as the truth sinks in that, as far as their eyes can see, absolutely nothing whatsoever has actually changed?

But if, like the South's Supreme Court justices, we attempt to force them to live as we would have them live, we may very well end up in a situation where they will not submit no matter what.  Now, you can certainly argue that Right is on the pro-life side just as surely as it was not on the pro-slavery side, and we'd agree - but that didn't save the lives of the hundreds of thousands dead in our Civil War.

Abolitionist John Brown was fully prepared for a bloodbath to free the slaves, up to and including his own blood.  How much blood - and whose - are you prepared to shed to end the slaughter of the innocent?

Or - would it be more prudent to continue on the path we've now trod for several decades, changing hearts and minds peaceably one at a time, and letting that be reflected in recurring elections and resulting legislation?